How grocery prices in Minnesota have increased since 2020

(FOX 9) - For this assignment, we are going shopping. We have some old receipts from my FOX 9 co-worker’s groceries from back in 2020 and 2022. We’re comparing those items to prices at the same stores today in 2024. 

We shopped online and in-person at Cub Foods, Hy-Vee and Target to see how the prices compare. Across separate lists, from three different stores, we shopped for 60 total available items, ranging from produce to laundry detergent.

Ten items came down in price from 2022, 11 had no change and 39 increased in price.

Cub Foods

Based on this list, the Cub Foods in White Bear Lake had the biggest increase in price. A 52% increase in grocery prices from 2020 to now, and a 16% increase from 2022 to now. 

Here's how much 16 items cost at Cub Foods in 2020, 2022, and 2024:

• 2020 - $44.48
• 2022 – $58.56
• 2024 - $67.74

Target

Next is Target in Plymouth, whose prices are up 35% from 2020 and up 17% from 2022. 

Here's how much 19 items cost at Target in 2020, 2022, and 2024:

• 2020 - $63.15
• 2022 - $72.63
• 2024 - $85.12

Hy-Vee

Hy-Vee in New Hope's list of items was up 33% since 2020, and up just 5% from 2022.

Here's how much 25 items cost at Hy-Vee in 2020, 2022, and 2024:

• 2020 - $58.38
• 2022 - $74.01
• 2024 - $77.67

"It’s almost like a Wack-a-Mole game, the prices are just changing constantly," said Joe Redden, professor of marketing analytics at the University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management.

Redden is constantly comparing prices. He invited FOX 9 into his home kitchen to look over our list, and noticed between 2020, coming out of the pandemic, to 2022, prices had massive increases.

While most prices are still rising, it’s no longer across the board, and mostly depends on what’s on your grocery list. 

The price of soups on our list even went down or stayed steady at Cub Foods.

Here's how much Campbell's Cream of Mushroom Soup 10.5oz costs: 

• 2020 - $1.29
• 2022 - $2.29
• 2024 - $1.69

"Makes sense right? If I have one really big price change before, I don’t need as big of a price chance now," says Redden. "I think the companies are all struggling with it too. They are trying to figure it out with all the inflation, because they are paying a lot more for all their employees to make the product, for the interest they need to pay on their factories. All these things are going up, and they are certainly going to pass some of those costs to the customers."

Redden points out companies still use the so-called "shrinkflation" technique for pricing. Slightly fewer ounces of a given product might prevent a price from rising to the next dollar point. 

What many might find annoying, could help you, if you are on a fixed budget. Plus, it’s the price per ounce we should all pay the closest attention to.

"If I’ve only got $10 left to spend on a tight budget, and that item is $5 instead of $7, that maybe a good deal for me," said Redden. "There’s kind of an assumption that when I buy in a larger quantity it’s going to be cheaper per unit. That’s not necessarily the case."

Foods with a shorter shelf life, such as fresh produce, meats, eggs, will forever have the greatest price swings. For meats, we saw a 57% increase in prices from 2024 to 2020, and a 12% increase from 2022 to 2024. But, for fruit, just a 10% increase from 2020 to 2024, and 5% increase from 2022 to 2024.

The egg market is still healing from the bird flu outbreak from 2022, greatly reducing the number of chickens and the nation's egg supply. There’s no way of getting around the ripple effect from that ingredient alone and the price impacts on your recipes, and other products.

"Unfortunately, it’s harder. It’s not like when eggs are cheap, I can just buy three months’ worth," Redden said. 

So, what does Redden suggest for saving on grocery bills?

• Conduct taste tests. Redden does this frequently with his family and his students, comparing name-brand products to store brands. Many are often shocked at how often they can’t tell the difference and start purchasing the cheaper option.

"For us, ice cream doesn’t matter, and kettle chips doesn’t matter, they are all the same," says Redden.

• Look for substitutions,  especially when it comes to proteins. Let the lower price option guide your meal planning.

"Maybe this week, instead of sausage, I’m going to buy the chicken. Maybe next week I’m going to flip it. Maybe bacon is expensive now," said Redden. "Be flexible."

• Shop in multiple stores, and pay attention to prices. Each have different strategies as far as how they price items, what days of the week prices might change. Prices within the same chain often vary by location and can be different online compared to in the store.

"I think what this data is telling us there is so much variance, so it’s really hard to just take a snapshot and get a clean picture, ever because prices are constantly moving and constantly changing," says Redden. "I wouldn’t be surprised if the next time someone did this you might see certain ones that go down because we have seen some of the manufacturing wages abating a bit. So maybe some of that gets passed through."