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Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 live updates: Florida in path of future Hurricane Helene, latest track shows

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Published  September 23, 2024 10:25am CDT
Hurricanes
FOX 35 Orlando

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine formed in the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Monday morning and is forecast to become a hurricane later this week, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine: Live Updates

11 a.m. update: 

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine has formed in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and is expected to strengthen over the next few days and become a hurricane on Wednesday, the NHC said.

The system will continue to strengthen as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. 

Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches have been issued for parts of Mexico and Cuba. 

Here is the new forecast track, which shows a portion of Florida in the path of future Hurricane Helene: 

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10:21 a.m. update: The NHC said it will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, at 11 a.m.

This will provide us with the first forecast track, which will give a better idea of when and where a future named storm is headed.

8 a.m. update:

The odds of a tropical system developing over the next 48 hours in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico have increased to a high – 80% – chance, the NHC said. 

The northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely watch the progression of this system as watches or warnings will likely be issued for portions of those areas later Monday morning.

2 a.m. update:

There's a 70% chance that Invest 97L will become a tropical depression in the next two days and a 90% chance over the next seven. 

What is the forecast for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine?

The NHC is closely watching Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine for development as it moves northward across the Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico.

The weather conditions are favorable for the tropical system, previously known as Invest 97L, to develop more, and it's likely that a tropical depression or storm will form in the next day or two as it moves north across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the NHC said.

Once the disturbance moves over the Gulf of Mexico, forecasters said additional development is possible. This system is expected to bring heavy rain to areas of Central America during the next several days, even if it doesn't develop further.

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Later this week, the same system is forecast to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and those along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also keep an eye on the system.

Where is Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine?

The cyclone is located about 130 miles south-southwest of the Grand Cayman and about 350 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.

It has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and is moving at 6 mph.

Will Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine become a hurricane? Is Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine tracking toward Florida?

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will likely develop into a tropical depression and "rapidly intensify" to a hurricane – with some models showing a major hurricane (Cat. 3 or higher), according to FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner.

"It's overwhelmingly likely we'll see a hurricane this week, and it is likely to make landfall on Thursday," Garner said, leaving four days – including Monday – for preparations, specifically along the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Gulf Coast.

Should a storm or hurricane form, it would be called Helene, the eighth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. 

Any impacts to the Orlando area?

In areas along and just east of its path, there could be storm surge, tornadoes, up to 6 inches of rain, and winds over 75 mph. The Orlando area may be just east of those winds, while the Gainesville region will be much closer.

Invest 97L tracker: Path, spaghetti models

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