Suburbs, Iron Range are battlegrounds for control of Minnesota Legislature

(FOX 9) - The campaign for control of the state Legislature is at a fever pitch, but most Minnesotans wouldn't know it.

Roughly 20 of the 201 House and Senate districts are true battlegrounds, meaning that both parties are concentrating their money and resources in a small number of places. Swings in a few districts could be enough to tip control of the Legislature, one of only two in the U.S. where the political parties split control of the chambers.

Republicans and Democrats are flooding mailboxes with literature attacking each other's candidates. On Tuesday, the DFL made a nearly $2.9 million television ad buy across five Senate races. And the candidates themselves are knocking on doors, trying to make personal connections amid the rancor.

Neither party needs to flip many seats to win full control. Democrats have a four-seat advantage in the Minnesota House, and Republicans hold a three-seat edge in the Senate when factoring in independents. 

The top races are clustered around the state. Most are in the Twin Cities suburbs, while several others are on northern Minnesota's Iron Range. A few battlegrounds are scattered in regional centers like St. Cloud and Rochester.

Member-versus-member

One of the state's most competitive -- and expensive -- House districts pits state Reps. John Heinrich and Zack Stephenson in Anoka and Coon Rapids. Heinrich and Stephenson got elected in 2018 to represent different districts, but redistricting paired them together. The two are friendly; Stephenson said they had a beer after a recent debate.

Heinrich, a businessman and veteran, said crime is voters' biggest concern, and he's critical of House Democrats for what he sees as a lack of support for police.

"I think by far right now the biggest thing is the public safety issue," he said in an interview while knocking on doors in Coon Rapids. "We’ve had a big problem in our state with crime and lawlessness just skyrocketing."

Stephenson, a prosecutor, said he's highlighting legislative efforts to curb catalytic converter theft and support for tougher penalties on sex offenders. He's hearing from voters who are tired of the extremes in politics, he said.

"They’re frustrated with the constant pitched warfare between the parties, and they want to see people work together and get things done on the big issues they’re facing today" like education, the economy, crime, and women's rights, Stephenson said in an interview.

Heinrich said he would support a 12- or 15-week abortion ban and called Minnesota's current lack of abortion restrictions "extreme." (A Ramsey County judge ruled several laws unconstitutional this summer.)

State legislative races are far removed from national politics yet are still affected by them. Democrats are raising abortion and voting rights as top issues, while Republicans focus on President Joe Biden's unpopularity, inflation, and crime.

Perennial swing seat

In St. Cloud, both parties have one of the state's key swing seats in their sights. In 2020, Democratic state Sen. Aric Putnam flipped the seat by 316 votes out of nearly 40,000 cast.

This year, Putnam faces a challenge from state Rep. Tama Theis, a Republican who represents half of the Senate district in the Minnesota House.

The campaign is everywhere. Theis said people approached her at a recent funeral to talk about the election.

Theis supports making Social Security income free from Minnesota tax -- right now, higher-income retirees must pay tax on Social Security benefits. But she's not fully behind a proposal from Republican governor candidate Scott Jensen to eliminate the state's personal income tax, telling FOX 9 it might not be doable in Minnesota. 

"(Seniors) are going where they don't have their Social Security taxed or the tax rate isn't so high," Theis said in an interview with the GOP's St. Cloud field office. "It doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure out, we either do something different or we're not going to have a lot of people living in Minnesota."

Putnam went against his party on some high-profile votes, approving a business tax break on Paycheck Protection Program loans while rejecting a DFL-proposed tax hike on high earners, according to legislative scorecards produced by Minnesota interest groups. But he has been a solid Democratic vote on many issues, and declined to name a specific area where DFL Gov. Tim Walz had erred.

After not campaigning in-person during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Putnam said energy is building for this year's midterm.

"There’s an ironic benefit to all the negative, horrible, dishonest mailers that pop out. People at least recognize me when I come to the door," Putnam said in an interview at the DFL's St. Cloud field office. "'You’re the guy that someone told me hated cops. Is that true?' Of course, it’s not." 

The two haven't debated. Theis said proposed debates haven't worked in her schedule; Putnam accused his opponent of skipping them.

Campaign strategy

Candidates and volunteers have real-time data that allows them to bypass homes where people have already voted. Smartphone apps built for campaigns will tell them which doors in a particular neighborhood to knock on based on dozens of inputs, such as what model car a person drives.

Candidates have dual strategies in their get-out-the-vote efforts: encourage supporters to get to the polls, while convincing fence-sitters to pick them.

On the Iron Range, Republicans are targeting two Senate seats and four House seats that have been in DFL hands for decades. The GOP believes this is the year that the region flips red.

Meanwhile, the Twin Cities suburbs have trended increasingly blue in recent years. If the trend continues, Democrats have several pickup opportunities. But if enthusiasm wanes for the DFL, Republicans could retake some suburban seats lost in recent years.

Regional centers also have seats in play. Democrats think they can pick up a Senate seat in Rochester, while Republicans are eyeing the St. Cloud seat.